First, here is the initial entry. In this particular entry, the comments below it are a big part of the entry itself.
My predicted record: 86-91 wins
Actual record: 96-66
This might seem like a bad prediction on my part, but I would like to point out that it wasn’t as off as you might think. Had the team that started the year played the whole season, I think they would have ended up in the low 90s. Who added those extra five or so wins you say? Well one of their question marks going into the season was their bullpen which they revamped through deadline trades. For example, they picked up: Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez, Mike Adams, and some other reliever whose name escapes me.
I was also right in my prediction that the Rangers would have to out-score opponents to win. Although they had either four or five 14 game winners, no one behind CJ Wilson’s ERA would indicate that they would have as many wins with any other team. The second best starters ERA behind Wilson’s 2.96 was a 3.94. So even though this shows their starters stayed away from injury and persevered in the Texas heat, no one behind CJ Wilson was a bona fide #2 starter, like I predicted in my preview entry.
I would like to explain the grading scale. Even though I gave the Rangers a C, that doesn’t mean I predicted they would fall off. A C meant a team would be just as good as they were the previous year. Anything above a C would mean that they would be a better team, and anything below a C meant that I thought they would be a worse team. The degree by which the team would be either better or worse would depend on how far away the grade was from a C. So I predicted the Rangers had tread water in the offseason. Personally, I don’t think the team that started the year would have made it to the World Series again, but with their additions they made it to the same place as last year.
I think I got this team pretty well when you adjust for the mid-season trades. What would you say?
First of all, here is my initial preview entry of the A’s. So you can review the facts I put forth.
My predicted record for the A’s: 88-93 wins
Actual Record: 74-88
I know this seems like a bad prediction but I *did* put in a clause in my record prediction that said:
” Although, with young rotations there is always the risk that the rotation will lose a few starters to overwork (cough,cough…Gio Gonzalez), injuries, streakiness etc. In which case, their win range is in the mid 70′s.”
Well, there were starters lost to injury. The only starters above 200 innings pitched were: an much worse Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez. I will admit that I thought Gonzalez was going to be the one lost to injury and he completely defied my prediction by becoming the ace of that staff. I definitely got that one wrong. The most prominent example of injury is Dallas Braden who went out after pitching only 18 innings. So really I was spot on in my prediction by adding on that last part.
I did NOT predict their bullpen would be as good as it became but all around I think I nailed this team as well. What do you say?
Those who have been reading this blog for about 6 month may remember that I did a sereies of Offseason Recap and Preview entries. This series of entries will look back on my evalutations and previews to see how well I did.
This specific entry deals with my second preivew entry of the Angels. I do the second first because the first is the Rangers are still playing and I will let them finish before I can fully evaluate their season.
My predicted record: 80-82 to 85-77
Actual Record: 86-76
So I wasn’t that far off in terms of wins and this may seem like a good amount of wins, but my thing with them is the Vernon Wells move impeded future progress. Here is my thought on the trade directly from that entry:
“I see the Vernon Wells move as one out of desparation and not very well thought through. Although Wells may have been a very good player last year he still has a contract that averages 18 million a year. Up to this point, he has not made significantly more than 10 million a year and so will start making figures in the 20 millions. This is for at best a very good player and at worst what he was early on in the contract. The upside to this offseason’s low spending was that they could make a run for Albert Pujols next but the Wells move effectively washed that away. Second, I am pretty sure the Blue Jays would have given him away for free. Instead, the Angels gave away one of the top five power hitting Catchers in the game. Is he better than Wells, no but it is still a bit much to give up.”
Before I go into I-am-a-Physchic mode, I would like to make sure everyone is farmiliar with what actually happened in the trades for those who are confused by the fact that Napoli was in Anaheim last year and is in Texas this year and where Vernon Wells being onthe Blue Jays last year fits into all of this . The first trade that was made between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels sent Mike Napoli to the Blue Jays in exchange for Vernon Wells. Napoli was a Blue Jay for about two tenths of a second before they sent him to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Frank Francisco.
Last year, Wells’ stats were: .218/.248/.412 hitting, scored 60 runs, and drove in 66 runs. Sure, he hit 25 HRs as well, but is this the kind of production a team wants fromsomeone being paid 15-20 million dollars? I think the Angels would rather still have Mike Napoli as he: hit .320/.414/.631, scored 72 runs at a much slower runner, and drove in 75 runs primarily from the backof the line-up. Did I mention he also hit 30 Home Runs while only earning around$5 million? I need not mention what he has meant to the Rangers thus far in their World Series run.
I think I pretty much nailed the Angels. What do you think?