So, Brian, what happened last year?
Angel Pagan, Melky Cabrera, Clay Hensley, and Ryan Theriot.
Carlos Beltran, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Mark DeRosa, Bill Hall, Jeff Keppinger, Ramon Ramirez, Cody Ross, Aaron Rowand, Jonathan Sanchez, and Andres Torres.
Why?: Before I started looking at their offseason, I was one of those people who thought the Giants could seriously contend for the NL West with the Diamonbacks. Now, not so much. Sure they added a couple good people to soften the blow, but the subtraction column is just massacre. It is the combination of both an astounding quantity advantage over the additions and a substantial quality advantage over it.
Let’s go through the additions and subtractions just by what the players mean to the team, shall we? They added: two average starting outfielders, a decent reliever, and a solid infielder. They lost: an All-star outfielder, two above-average outfielders, two slightly-below-average outfielders, a decent shortstop, two power-hitting utility players, two alright relievers, and a high potential starter, who has already thrown a no-hitter. While we’re at it, you can just tack on a partridge in a pear tree.
I over-value pitching in a team more than any other person that I know, but I can’t see how the Giants will consistently win, in AT&T Park especially, with the team they have. They don’t have any ways of scoring runs repeatedly that I can see. I mean Brian Wilson should be better this season now that he is (probably) healthy, but a closer only benefits a team when they have the lead.
Predicted Record Range: 80-85 wins
Next Up: Wait, you mean I don’t have any more entries of this sort? Yipee!! I won’t be able to go to games consistently until June, so I’ll figure out some other types of entries to write, so stay “tuned”, or whatever the word is for following a blog.
The Rays were the beneficiaries of (reportedly) the greatest day in baseball last year:
Carlos Peña, Burke Badenhop, Jeff Keppinger, Josh Lueke, Jose Molina, Fernando Rodney, and Luke Scott.
Casey Kotchman, John Jaso, Kelly Shoppach, and Andy Sonnanstine.
Why?: Really every thing they lost, they replaced, and they also added talent. They replaced Casey Kotchman with what I believe to be a better first baseman in Carlos Peña. They downgraded a little by replacing Shoppach with Molina, but also added a very good player in Luke Scott, who I see most likely to be the Casey Kotchman of this year for the Rays in that he will over-perform his contract.
Andy Sonnantine would have been a reliever for the Rays (because of the depth of their rotation), so they over-replaced him with Fernando Rodney, Burke Badenhop, and Josh Lueke. This was a huge bolster for a bullpen depleted from their form two years ago.
I haven’t even gotten to what may be their best move of the offseason. Okay, so it really wasn’t an addition, per say, but signing Matt Moore to a 6- year, $14 million (or something in that range. I’m sure of the money, but not the years), contract was probably a good move, potentially a spectacular. For those who don’t know, Matt Moore is ranked in the same echelon as Stephen Strasburg. This is $2+ million a year for an ace-type pitcher for six year. They then have a secondary part of the deal made up of club-options that make the deal a total of 8 years and $40 million (this I am sure of).
You may or may not remember that Evan Longoria signed a similar contract (6 years 17.5 Million on his seventh day in the league, or something ridiculous like that). Well, doesn’t that look like an incredible deal now? They can’t really lose that much. At worst, they are losing the $16 Million over the first part of the contract if he stinks, or injures himself. Even for the low-budget Rays, that isn’t a huge blow. The upside on this deal is enormous, though.
Predicted Record Range: 92-97 wins