First of all, here is the intial entry.
Predicted Record: 84-89 wins
Actual Record: 95-67
For an AL Central prediction, this was surprisingly… not terrible. I *was* off by 6 to 11 wins, but I didn’t account for the surprises in this group. I would take any of my AL West predictions over this one, but it was the best prediction save Kansas City and Cleveland because they reverted to their self of awfulness. I attribute most of the 6 games I was off by to Justin Velander and Miguel Cabrera playing above what they had shown to this point last year. I actually did put in this provision. Usually what happens, is that Cabrera and Verlander have years where they’re on. Maybe I’m especially focused on them, but for whatever reason, this has been true of these two. Verlander had not put together 3 “good” years together yet. So I thought he would regress. Kill me on that if you wish. I really don’t know what else to attribute me being off by so much to, except for the late season pick-up of Doug Fister that addressed the rotation depth problem I detailed in the original entry.
Overall, I got the gist of this team but failed to accurately predict how they would do.
Any time your team is most remembered for a failure than its successes. It’s not good:
Why?: Although they did make some improvements, they did so in a way that managed to anger the other 29 teams for what may be years to come. Now, I’m not saying that it wasn’t inevitable but whoever gave the first big multi year deal to a middle reliever was going to be hated. It just so happens that the Tigers made that move. From now on, acquiring and developing middle relief talent will be changed forever in that it is now a more valuable asset.
The losses, although insignificant in talent could come back to bite the Tigers if they keep the injury bug with them in 2011. Although they upgraded the spot of fourth and fifth starters with Brad Penny and Phil Coke, they sacrificed depth when they let go of Galarraga and Miner. Now if any starter goes down (and who ever heard of a rotation going through the season completely healthy) they will have to turn to Mr. AAA instead of a proven starter like Galarraga. This might cost them just enough spots to be edged out by one of the other strong teams in the Central.
Also, they did get rid of defensive depth in Laird but took care of that by getting Omir Santos. Everett on the other hand, should have been kept. I know the Tigers like to think optimistically but when was the last time he played 120+ games. I’ve got the answer, 2007. Again, I like Everett significantly better than a AAA shotstop or second baseman or even Ramon Santiago.
Predicted Record Range: 84-89 They made some significant additions and are getting players back but the Tigers’ players do tend to ebb and flow (Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera). Will they finally all have good seasons at the same time? If so, this team has enough talent to win the division but the mean of the ebb and flow is the predicted range.
Next Up: Cleveland Indians
Tomorrow is a double header for Fordham. So the data from this game might back me up over part of the weekend. I will get the first entry by end of Saturday but make no promises about the second. I will try and get the player bios on the roster entry as soon as I can but baseball season can be hectic. We’ll see.